Subsidies for renewable energies?
In order to determine what the electricity market might look like in 2050 and in the period prior to this, the team simulated two different future scenarios. The first scenario sees a situation in which renewable energies receive no additional support from the state and everything continues as things are today. In the second scenario, producers of electricity from renewable sources receive subsidies. Here, the researchers worked on the assumption that the subsidies are the same for all energy forms – irrespective of whether this is wind, solar or biomass energy. The subsidies would be financed by means of a tax levied on energy consumption.
The analyses drew the following conclusions: in the absence of promotion measures, the phasing out of nuclear energy, which in the calculation was set to be completed in 2035, will be almost fully offset with electricity imports. In the early years, there will be minor investments in biomass. In 2050, solar energy will be able to compete with other technologies, leading to greater investments in this segment. With respect to hydropower, run-of-the-river power plants are set to produce around the same amount of electricity up to 2050, while the production of pumped-storage power plants will fluctuate. This is because they are more dependent on prices, which are likely to increase up to 2035.
Different results are generated in the second scenario in which renewable energies receive government support. In this scenario too, electricity imports from neighbouring countries will increase during the phasing out of nuclear energy. However, the earlier growth in the share of renewable energies will cushion this effect. Under this scenario, the objectives of Energy Strategy 2050 can be achieved – primarily thanks to a marked increase in the share of solar energy. Wind energy is likely to only make a minimal contribution.